📊 Tech Stare Down & Powell Prime Time

Microsoft ($MSFT), Google ($GOOGL) and AMD ($AMD) all announced earnings yesterday after market close, beating analyst estimates.

despite the somewhat positive headlines, all sold off A/H: AMD -6.28%, GOOGL -5.76%, MSFT -0.23%

AMD Q1 revenue forecast was underwhelming at $5.1-$5.7bn (est $5.77bn), while Google noted significant cap ex spending $11bn (est $9.82bn).

other names within the mag7 made downward moves in sympathy, despite any company-specific relevant news: NVDA -1.79%, TSLA -2.56%, META -2.0%

one of these charts does not look like the other:

today, all eyes will be on Powell’s presser scheduled for 230pm ET, where market participants will be dissecting every word and gesture to predict the pace of future rate cuts.

its your time to shine, JPow 📸

▪️ earnings: Boeing ($BA), Mastercard ($MA), NASDAQ ($NDAQ) & QUALCOMM ($QCOM) (ER calendar below)

▪️ economic data: FOMC rate decision is largely baked = to remain unchanged (economic release calendar below)

▪️ layoffs announced yesterday include UPS (12k), PayPal (2.5k / 9% workforce), Block (1k), UBS (3k), NASDAQ (“hundreds”), WSJ (TBD)

▪️ in brighter news, yesterday the conference board consumer confidence index hit the highest level since the pandemic (114.8, est 114.8) showing consumers are still cautious but feeling more optimistic about the future… can we poll UPS drivers next month?

▪️ Apple ($AAPL) stock lagged today (-1.92%) after Ming-Chi Kuo, a well-known and historically accurate Apple analyst, reported iPhone sales likely to decline ~15% in 2024

▪️ the continuance of student loan repayments seem to be making an impact on the dating scene (?): Match ($MTCH) reported the fifth straight quarter of paying Tinder users

▪️ Match Group ($MTCH) reported a significant 8% year-over-year decline in paying Tinder users, falling below the 10mm mark, surpassing expectations of a 6.6% drop. Concurrently, the company announced a $1 billion share buyback program, despite recent executive changes and pressure for a turnaround.

▪️ Microsoft ($MSFT) reported an 18% increase in Q2 revenue to $62 billion, the strongest since 2022, fueled by burgeoning interest in AI products and a notable 30% growth in Azure cloud-services. Despite the positive financials and being named the world's most valuable company, the stock experienced volatility post-announcement, indicating investor disappointment over cloud growth not meeting high expectations.

▪️ A Delaware judge has nullified Elon Musk's $55 billion compensation plan from Tesla ($TSLA), a landmark ruling that poses a significant impact on Musk's wealth and his business endeavors. The largest executive compensation package in history was challenged for excessive size and flawed processes, leading to a substantial dip in Tesla's share value post-ruling.

▪️ PIMCO braces for potential upheaval in the $1.7 trillion private credit market, contrasting the optimism of peers like Blackstone and Apollo. As historical contrarians, Pimco aims to capitalize on distressed assets, leveraging aggressive tactics amid predictions of a market slowdown and heightened regulatory scrutiny.

▪️ Apple ($AAPL) is projected to experience a significant 15% year-over-year decline in iPhone shipments for 2024, the most substantial among major global mobile phone brands. This downturn is attributed to structural market challenges, including emerging high-end mobile phone designs like GenAI and foldable phones, and intensified competition in the Chinese market, especially from Huawei.

▪️ Starbucks ($SBUX) reported lower-than-expected earnings and revenue for its fiscal first quarter, missing street forecasts due to a U.S. boycott and a cautious consumer base in China. Despite an 8% rise in net sales to $9.4bn and a record $3.6bn in gift card sales, the company faced headwinds including increased competition in China and controversy surrounding its stance on the Israel-Hamas conflict (CNBC).

▪️ today’s earnings releases listed below. full list for the week is here

Yesterday’s Economic Results

Upcoming Economic Data Releases

▪️ full calendar of events here

every rejection is just a test

kick ass out there