📊 SPX Record Highs, Boeing Beatdown & Tech Earnings on Deck

yesterday the S&P 500 closed at an all-time high (+19% since Oct) without a clear catalyst.

despite recent fed speak intimating a “higher for longer” posture, the market has priced in 5+ cuts between March and YE.

market participants are eagerly awaiting Powell’s presser on Wednesday, where they hope to receive more detail on the feds rate-cutting strategy

▪️ earnings: $MSFT, $GOOGL, $GM, $AMD and $SBUX release earnings today (ER calendar below)

▪️ economic data: consumer confidence & JOLTS (economic release calendar below)

▪️ Amazon ($AMZN) bails on $1.4bn iRobot deal, leading to a ~31% reduction in their workforce & CEO-less

▪️ middle east tension amps up with Biden vowing to retaliate against Iran (& their proxies) from the attack on US forces in Jordan. keep defense contractors on your watchlist: $LMT, $NOC, $RTX, $LDOS

▪️ Sirius XM ($SIRI) signs $100mm podcast deal with “smartless” (hosted by actors Will Arnett, Jason Bateman and Sean Hayes). the stock closed -1% on monday

▪️ JPMorgan’s ($JPM) Marko Kolanovic highlights this week as pivotal for tech stock valuations, coinciding with significant earnings reports from Big Tech and a Federal Reserve decision. With expectations of interest rate cuts and high market concentration in tech giants, Kolanovic cautions on potential inflation risks and a predicted S&P 500 decline to 4,200 by year-end (implying a ~14% decline).

▪️ In the aftermath of a drone strike in Jordan that killed three US soldiers, President Biden is navigating a complex response aimed at deterring Iran and its proxies without escalating to full-scale warfare. As political pressures mount, the US explores targeting Iranian-aligned assets outside Iran, maintaining a delicate balance between strong retaliation and avoiding broader conflict.

▪️ Amazon ($AMZN) has terminated its $1.4 billion acquisition of iRobot due to regulatory pushbacks, prompting iRobot to cut 31% of its workforce and initiate a restructuring plan. The move reflects growing scrutiny on tech giants' market influence, with Amazon facing heightened antitrust pressure in the US and Europe.

▪️ Boeing's ($BA) reputation has suffered a significant decline in net trust among U.S. adults and frequent flyers, dropping 12 percentage points in a month, according to a Morning Consult report. This follows recent safety concerns involving the Boeing 737 Max 9, though the company's net trust remains higher than its low point after the 2018 and 2019 Max 8 crashes.

▪️ Sirius XM ($SIRI) has acquired exclusive rights to the popular podcast "SmartLess," hosted by Will Arnett, Jason Bateman, and Sean Hayes, in a deal surpassing $100 million. This three-year agreement includes distribution, ad sales, live events, and access to past episodes, marking a significant move in SiriusXM's podcasting expansion.

▪️ IBM ($IBM) has issued a directive requiring all U.S. managers to work from an office or client location at least three days/week, with a relocation ultimatum for those working remotely. Managers not near an IBM office must relocate by August or face separation from the company, underscoring CEO Arvind Krishna's emphasis on in-person work.

today’s earnings releases listed below. full list for the week is here

Yesterday’s Economic Results

yesterday’s Dallas fed manufacturing data presented a huge miss to the downside at -27.4, the lowest level since June 2023.

➡️ Production Index decreased from 1.2 to -15.4.
➡️ New Orders Index declined from -10.1 to -12.5.

Upcoming Economic Data Releases

today, all eyes are on conference board consumer confidence and JOLTS data, which could add to the growing list of conflicting market data pointing to a soft landing. full calendar of events here

nothing in the world can take the place of persistence
Calvin Coolidge

kick ass out there