📊 "Metazon" Strikes Back, CRE Woes Continue

Markets were largely positive yesterday on the back of a rally in big tech and reported progress on the ceasefire in Gaza.

After Microsoft, Google and AMD earnings disappointed earlier this week, Meta and Amazon carried the team on its back (QQQ +1.18%) after crushing earnings.

Meta +15% after hours (A/H) after a goldilocks earnings report: (1) beating estimates across the board (2) announced first-ever dividend ($.50/sh), (3) authorized a $50bn buyback & (4) issuing solid guidance for Q1. Zuck stands to receive $175mm ($700mm total) for his share of dividends… no wonder he’s struggling to find practical ways to use all that cash…

Amazon +9% A/H after reporting strong revenue +14% m/m. Not only was it a record-breaking holiday season, but they also pared back on the expense side having laid off 27,000 employees between late 2022 thru mid 2023. They also announced Rufus, a conversational AI shopping assistant which aims to help shoppers compare products and make decisions. For example “does this oversized tumbler contain led?”

▪️ Earnings today: Exxon, AbbVie, Chevron and Regeneron. Looking ahead to next week we’ll have another busy earnings calendar: Eli Lilly, Toyota, Pepsi, McD’s, Disney, Alibaba, Uber + more.

▪️ Economic data: nonfarm payrolls, unemployment and UMich consumer sentiment will be the focus tomorrow. (economic release calendar & expectations below). JPM expects an upside surprise to the payroll numbers this morning.

▪️ New York Community Bancorp’s continued to sell off today as the market struggled to shake off concerns regarding CRE exposure. NYCB closed -11% yesterday & -43% YTD. Valley National Bancorp, Western Alliance Bancorp, Zions Bancorp and BankUnited Inc. all fell 5% or more.KRE (regional banking ETF) is down 8% YTD. JPM is suggesting to buy the dip (more on that below 👇).

▪️ Harvard is reporting rent increases are cooling across the U.S., which may prove costly for multifamily borrowers and lenders who underwrote record high rental rates in a low interest rate environment.

▪️ Apple ($AAPL) faces a significant downturn in China, with a 13% revenue decline in the last quarter, marking its worst performance in the region since 2018's holiday season. This slump, accentuated by a resurgent Huawei and rare discounts on iPhones, casts a shadow over Apple's global financial outlook despite overall sales growth.

▪️ Apple CEO Tim Cook teases a potential artificial intelligence (AI) announcement later this year. Cook's comments suggest significant AI investments and developments to be revealed, possibly at the annual WWDC in June.

▪️ Oil is set for its largest weekly drop since early November, as West Texas Intermediate ($WTI) falls nearly 5% despite rising above $74 a barrel, amid advancing Gaza ceasefire talks. This decrease occurs alongside ongoing Middle East tensions, including attacks in the Red Sea and a drone assault in Jordan, influencing global oil market dynamics.

▪️ JPMorgan ($JPM) advises investors to sell five-year Treasuries following their surge, anticipating an upside surprise in the January payrolls data. Despite short-term advice to exit, JPMorgan maintains a bullish outlook on medium-term Treasuries for the long run.

▪️ Walt Disney ($DIS) is gearing up for a pivotal shareholder meeting on April 3, amid a tense battle with activist investor Nelson Peltz over board appointments and company direction. Peltz is challenging the current board's capabilities, advocating for changes to bolster Disney's profitability and succession planning.

▪️ today’s earnings releases (mkt caps $20bn+) listed below. full list for the week is here

Yesterday’s Economic Data Results

Upcoming Economic Data Releases

▪️ full calendar of events here

"You are never too old to set another goal
or to dream a new dream."
Malala Yousafzai

kick ass out there