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📊 Inflation Expectations, Bitcoin Resurgence & Your Taxes

📊 Inflation Expectations, Bitcoin Resurgence & Your Taxes

Ticker Tea
February 13, 2024

Markets closed mixed yesterday as investors braced for fresh inflation data to be released this morning (830am eastern).

Market participants are hopeful inflation will come in cooler than expected and may expedite the Federal Reserve’s plan to cut interest rates. Wall Street is estimating 2.9% CPI YoY.

Thus far this year, market performance has blown past wall street original estimates (blue line below).

This comes as corporate earnings have largely beat expectations (link) and the market has priced in 4.5 rate cuts (totaling 111 basis points) by year-end. Conversely, the Fed’s latest dot plot (link), a survey of Fed committee members forward projections, indicates there will be ~75 basis points of cuts in 2024.

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▪️ Earnings Today: Coca Cola, Airbnb, Marriott, Datadog, MGM Resorts, GoDaddy, Zillow, Robinhood, Lyft (calendar below)

▪️ Economic Data Today: CPI (inflation), NFIB Business Optimism, Real Earnings (calendar below)

▪️ Fed Speakers This Week: Goolsbee (Wed), Barr (Wed), Bostic (Wed), Waller (Thurs), Barr (Fri), Daly (Fri)

▪️ Sunday’s Super Bowl was the most-watched telecast in history with a US audience of 123.4 million viewers, up 7% from the prior record.

▪️ Tiger Woods has a new marketing partner with TaylorMade after ending a long-term endorsement deal with Nike earlier this year. The apparel line will debut in May (link)

▪️ Bitcoin ($BTC) has surged to $50,000 for the first time since 2021, fueled by significant demand for US spot Bitcoin ETFs, marking a notable rebound from the industry's recent setbacks. The digital currency's resurgence, alongside bullish sentiment in crypto-related stocks, underscores a growing mainstream acceptance and investor optimism in the crypto space. (60 second blog)

▪️ The US faces a significant challenge as nearly 20% of its commercial real estate debt, totaling $929 billion, matures this year, signaling a need for refinancing or property sales. This 40% increase from previous estimates is largely due to extended loan maturities amidst a backdrop of volatile interest rates and declining property values, putting pressure on banks and investors. (60 second blog)

▪️ The average tax refund for the 2024 filing season has dropped nearly 29% to $1,395, compared to $1,963 last year, based on IRS data from the first five days of tax filing. Despite the early decline, experts caution against drawing conclusions from preliminary data and suggest refunds could increase due to inflation adjustments and pending tax legislation. (60 second blog)

▪️ JetBlue ($JBLU) stock surged by up to 19% after activist investor Carl Icahn disclosed a 9.91% stake in the company, valuing his investment at approximately $204 million. Icahn's engagement, including talks about potential board representation, comes as JetBlue navigates challenges from recent court rulings impacting its growth strategies and partnership plans. (60 second blog)

▪️ Arm Holding’s ($ARM) stock has witnessed a meteoric rise, nearly tripling since its IPO, with a 29% surge on Monday alone, driving its market value above $150 billion. This rally is fueled by robust earnings and a surge in AI spending, highlighting Arm's expansion beyond smartphone tech and its significant role in the AI-driven market. (60 second blog)

▪️ Six years after the "Volmageddon" event, Wall Street is expressing renewed concern over a surge in short-volatility trades, with a Bloomberg survey revealing that 71% of respondents view these strategies as risky. Despite a more cautious approach compared to 2018, the fear is that billions poured into options-selling funds could destabilize the market if equity calm is disrupted. (60 second blog)