📊 CPI Est 3.4% YoY

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Ticker Tea
April 10, 2024

Happy CPI Day 📈

Yesterday, U.S. stock markets showed mixed results. The varied performance (see market snapshot 👇) came amid lower bond yields which generally bolstered the market, alongside positive remarks from Atlanta Fed President Bostic. He hinted at a possible rate cut this year, a move that buoyed stocks from earlier losses.

However, apprehensions over today's upcoming U.S. CPI report capped gains, with investors wary of how the inflation data might influence Federal Reserve actions. Industries such as industrials, insurance, and telecoms lagged, reflecting broader market concerns. The anticipated inflation figures are expected to show a rise to 3.4% year-over-year for March, remaining above the Fed's 2% target. Other major events today include a 10yr auction, FOMC minutes release and several Fed speeches (full eco list below).

CPI Prior Releases & Survey Data

Looking ahead, the financial community is gearing up for the first quarter earnings season starting this Friday, with major banks like JPMorgan Chase, Citigroup, and Wells Fargo scheduled to report. Expectations are set for modest profit growth among S&P 500 firms, marking the weakest growth since 2019.

A few equity headlines from yesterday 👇

*Moderna (MRNA) surged over +6% following positive feedback from Jeffries on its cancer vaccine trial with Merk's Keytrude, validating its therapy platform. (chart)

*Alkermes Plc (ALKS) advanced over +3% on significant Phase 1b study results for ALKS 2680 improving sleep latency. (chart)

*Nasdaq (NDAQ) appreciated over +2% as Morgan Stanley highlighted it as a top pick among US brokers and exchanges. (chart)

*Nvidia (NVDA) fell over -2% after Intel announced a new AI chip potentially outperforming Nvidia’s H100. (chart)

*Inmode Ltd (INMD) plummeted over -6% after reducing its annual revenue outlook below market expectations. (chart)

*Neogen (NEOG) dropped over -9% after cutting its yearly revenue forecast, falling short of consensus estimates. (chart)

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» A record block trade involving 75,000 December 2024 SOFR futures contracts marked the largest to date, significantly impacting the Treasury market. This strategic move, occurring on the eve of critical inflation data, suggests a bet on decreasing Fed rates, influenced by positive forecasts from major economic advisors. (link)

» In a dramatic late-day surge, the S&P 500 erased earlier losses and notched modest gains, buoyed by investor repositioning ahead of critical CPI data. Meanwhile, bond yields dipped and tech giants showed mixed performances as markets braced for potential shifts in Fed rate policies. (link)

» Apple ($AAPL) is set to enhance its business operations in Miami by acquiring 45,000 square feet of office space in Coral Gables, signaling a major expansion following similar moves by Amazon ($AMZN) and Microsoft ($MSFT). This strategic development underscores the area's growing appeal as a tech hub for major corporations since the pandemic. (link)

» Several artificial intelligence startups are considering initial public offerings (IPOs), spurred by a revitalized market for tech listings, according to a NYSE executive. These companies, primarily funded through private capital, are exploring public markets amid growing investor interest in AI-driven enterprise solutions. (link)

» Blackstone ($BX) plans to secure over $1 billion via a net-asset-value (NAV) loan against its 2016 flagship private equity fund, aiming to bolster liquidity without resorting to asset sales. This strategic financial maneuver reflects a broader industry trend as private equity firms adapt to slower deal-making environments and higher interest rates. (link)

» Intel ($INTC) has introduced the Gaudi 3, its newest AI chip, claiming superior power efficiency and speed over Nvidia's ($NVDA) H100 GPU, heating up competition in the AI semiconductor market. This launch comes as Intel seeks to capture more of the AI chip market, currently dominated by Nvidia, by offering configurations that integrate easily into existing systems. (link)

» Hedge funds have increased their stock sell-offs to the fastest rate in three months, significantly raising short positions as market conditions sour. This sell-off, documented by Goldman Sachs ($GS) and Bank of America ($BAC), reflects deepening concerns over stretched valuations and shifting rate cut expectations. (link)

» Marathon ($MARA) CEO Fred Thiel suggests that the anticipated Bitcoin halving impact might already be reflected in current prices, influenced by strong ETF-driven demand. While historically such events have spurred price increases, this time, the effect may be subdued due to early market adjustments. (link)

Major ($10bn+) earnings releases scheduled the next five business days 👇 Click here for a comprehensive list of upcoming earnings releases

Results from yesterday’s economic releases & today’s schedule below 👇 Click here for full schedule & live updates of Wall Street estimates.

 

“It takes guts and humility to admit mistakes. Admitting we're wrong is courage, not weakness.”

Roy T. Bennett

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