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📊 Chief Inflation Indicator This Week

📊 Chief Inflation Indicator This Week

Ticker Tea
February 12, 2024

Good morning and congratulations to all the Chiefs & Swifty fans 🎉

Futures are largely unchanged this morning on the back of a huge milestone last week: S&P 500 broke 5,000 for the first time in history (blog here).

Earnings season is still kicking, albeit fewer blockbuster names than prior weeks. Coca Cola, AirBnb, Doordash, Toast and Shakeshack are among this weeks names.

This week’s market moves will be dominated by the key inflation indicator being released tomorrow. CPI is expected to come in at 2.9%, the lowest rise seen since 2021. It’s expected the outcome will put a nail in the coffin of the Fed’s next move (cut rates or remain steady).

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▪️ Earnings Today: Zoom, Goodyear, Avis, Monday.com, Vornado (calendar below)

▪️ Economic Data Today: Not Much (calendar below)

▪️ Eight Fed Speaker This Week: Michelle Bowman, Tom Barkin and Neel Kashkari kick things off on Monday

▪️ Economist are becoming critical of the Fed’s aggressive rate posture (link)

▪️ IMF chief warns Russia’s economy is ‘in for very tough times’ and compares to the once-struggling Soviet Union economy (link)

▪️ January's core consumer price index (CPI) in the US is projected to rise by 3.7% from the previous year, marking the smallest annual increase since April 2021, indicating significant progress in the Federal Reserve's efforts to combat inflation. Despite this progress and growing optimism for potential rate cuts, Fed policymakers remain cautious, with their patience rooted in a robust economy, particularly a strong labor market that continues to support consumer spending. (60 second blog)

▪️ Corporate America is surpassing earnings expectations this season, with about 80% of S&P 500 companies reporting better-than-anticipated results, leading to a stock market rally. This positive trend, spearheaded by sectors such as energy, information technology, and consumer staples, has prompted analysts to adjust fourth-quarter earnings growth projections from 1.2% to 6.5%, the highest since mid-2022. (60 second blog)

▪️ Tesla ($TSLA) is facing a significant downturn, with its stock price dropping 22% at the start of 2024, contrasting sharply against the rally seen in other tech giants like Nvidia Corp. ($NVDA) and Meta Platforms Inc. ($META). This decline has sparked debate on Wall Street about Tesla's status among the so-called Magnificent Seven tech stocks, especially given its struggles with AI integration and a dimming outlook for electric vehicles. (60 second blog)

▪️ The U.S. gym sector experienced an unexpected halt in growth this January, with foot traffic to major chains remaining flat compared to January 2023, breaking the trend of over 40% increases in previous years. Factors such as harsh winter weather, increased competition, and unsuccessful price hikes are contributing to concerns over a challenging year ahead, with industry leaders like Planet Fitness ($PLNT) potentially relying on low-cost promotions to drive membership. (60 second blog)

▪️ Jeff Bezos has sold nearly 12 million Amazon ($AMZN) shares, valued at over $2 billion, according to filings with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission on February 7th and 8th. Additionally, Bezos has signaled intentions to sell an additional 50 million shares worth an estimated $8.4 billion, marking a significant divestiture for the Amazon executive chairman. (60 second blog)

▪️ As Sam Bankman-Fried faces potential life imprisonment for fraud related to FTX's collapse, there's unexpected hope for the crypto exchange's customers to recover their lost funds. The bankruptcy team has successfully recouped over $7 billion, and with investments appreciating in value, full repayment to customers and creditors appears feasible. (60 second blog)