📊 4 Takeaways From The Fed

Good morning!

Yesterday major indices experienced significant gains with the S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrials reaching new all-time highs. This rally came after the Fed:

  1. Held the fed funds target range steady at 5.25%-5.50% for the fifth consecutive meeting

  2. Decision to maintain interest rate projections (three, 25bps rate cuts within 2024 = -0.75% total)

  3. Raised the 2024 US GDP forecast (2.1% from 1.4%

  4. Slightly increased the core PCE inflation forecast

All that said, the Fed emphasized it’s focus on gaining more certainty around inflation trends before considering rate cuts.

Fed Dot Plot is a anonymous survey of FOMC members’ predictions of where Fed Funds rates will be in the future

Separately, the US weekly MBA mortgage applications saw a decline, with both purchase and refinancing indexes dropping amidst a rise in the average 30-year fixed mortgage rate. This slight downturn reflects ongoing challenges in the housing market, contrasting with the broader positive momentum observed in the stock markets.

⬆️ Gainers: Paramount (+12%), Coinbase (+12%), Affirm (+11%), Carvana (+10%), Topgolf (+9%), Opendoor (+9%), Wayfair (+8%) (list of top gainers)

⬇️ Losers: Signet Jewelers (-12%), Simply Good Foods (-6%), Robinhood (-5%) (list of top losers)

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» Despite a recent uptick in inflation, the Federal Reserve maintains plans for three interest rate cuts in 2024, while hinting at slowing the reduction of its bond holdings. Chair Jerome Powell expresses a measured stance, focusing on achieving a 2% inflation target before initiating rate reductions. (link)

» Reddit $RDDT has successfully priced its IPO at the top of the marketed range, raising $748 million, marking a significant milestone with a diluted valuation of $6.4 billion. This move not only underscores Reddit's prominence in the tech IPO landscape but also fuels momentum for upcoming public listings. (link)

» Barclays ($BCS) is set to reduce several hundred jobs across its investment bank division, including global markets, research, and banking sectors, as part of a strategic overhaul aimed at cost reduction and profitability enhancement. This move aligns with a broader industry trend of adjustments in response to a global slowdown in capital markets and dealmaking activities. (link)

» Kering SA ($KER) faces a significant setback as Gucci sales plummet by about 20% in the first quarter, particularly in the Asia-Pacific region, leading to a 12% stock price drop and a $6.8 billion loss in market value. This decline is attributed to Gucci's bold style falling out of favor with Chinese consumers, amidst a broader cooling of luxury market demand. (link)

» Micron's ($MU) shares surged by over 14% following a notable earnings beat in its fiscal Q2 2024, driven by the burgeoning artificial intelligence (AI) sector. The company outperformed expectations with an adjusted EPS of 42 cents against a forecasted 25 cent loss and anticipates continued growth with a $6.6 billion revenue forecast for Q3, spurred by AI advancements. (link)

» Bitcoin reversed early losses and climbed 1.7% to $65,773.23, rallying after the Federal Reserve's decision to hold interest rates steady and project multiple rate cuts this year. The move underscores the cryptocurrency's sensitivity to monetary policy, mirroring gains in crypto-linked stocks and broader markets. (link)

» Signet ($SIG), owner of Kay Jewelers and Zales, reports a cautious outlook on engagement trends, attributing potential delays in proposals to economic uncertainties and high inflation. The company adjusts its engagement increase forecasts from 10% to 5-10% for the year, amidst a backdrop of a significant drop in US engagements post-pandemic. (link)

» Gold prices soared to a historic peak of $2,200 an ounce, propelled by the Federal Reserve's continued outlook for rate cuts amidst rising inflation. This bullish trend, buoyed by geopolitical uncertainties and significant buying from central banks, particularly China, underscores gold's enduring allure as a safe-haven asset. (link)

Major earnings releases scheduled the next five business days 👇
Click here for a comprehensive list of earnings scheduled over the next 5 days (mkt cap $1bn+)

Economic results from yesterday are below, along with today’s schedule 👇 Click here for full schedule & live updates of Wall Street estimates.

 

Success is getting what you want; happiness is wanting what you get.
W.P. Kinsella

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